CASH BIDS

Cash Bids

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Commentary

Grain Commentary By Jeff Thatcher

Friday January 19th
 
Corn: +1
 
Corn traded higher for the majority of the session today and finished up a penny. Technically, we tested and failed again at 354. For now, we remain range bound. This morning’s story was excellent exports from last week, with both corn and beans coming in well above expectations. Wheat seemed to serve as corn’s anchor while the soybeans probed higher. It’s no secret that at this time there is just too much corn in the world to justify a rally, but with an extensive fund short and a farmer that is reluctant-to-sell at these prices, there isn’t exactly a lot to push us lower just yet. Trade has its eyes on South America as they weigh the impact of a late start to the safrina corn planting.
 
Soybeans: +4 ¼
 
Soybeans traded higher overnight and were fast out of the gate this morning on great exports and South American weather forecasts looking less than ideal. At one point beans were up a dime and the Nov contract cleared the $10 mark. Concerns of being too wet now in Brazil’s soybean growing regions, and still too dry in northeastern Brazil and Argentina. Barring serious flooding, the Brazilian crop is all but made, while Argentina is finally putting the cap on their planting season and has a lot of potential either way. Soymeal again supportive today as the nearby contract grabbed another 3.20. Managed money as of Tuesday added another 10k contracts to their short position, and maybe illustrates some of what we have been seeing here late in the week as the charts make them nervous. We continue to watch South American weather, but technicals will continue to be the driver without any other news, and the charts are not currently bearish.
 
TK