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Commentary

Grain Commentary By Jeff Thatcher

Friday October 12th
 
Corn: +4 ½
 
Corn had a solid day that saw it trade higher for most of the session.  The December contract ended over 4 cents higher with follow through buying after yesterday’s strength.  Today’s close marked the highest close since late August.  For the week, the December contract gained just over a nickel.  This morning’s weekly export report was somewhat disappointing with sales of just under of 40 million bushels.  This was on the lower end of estimates and well below the bookings of a year ago.  Despite the slow week of sales, total commitments are still 51% ahead of last year.  Do keep in mind that last year’s early sales pace was very slow. Sales will need to average 35 million per week for the balance of the year to meet the revised record export forecast.  Funds were estimated buyers of a strong 14,000 contracts today with the afternoon CFTC report showing their short position near just 10,000 contracts. 
 
Soybeans: +9 ¼
           
The soybean market spent the entire session trading higher and ended with a moderate gain.  November futures gained just over 9 cents on the day, but did actually finish just over a penny lower for the week.  Soybean products were also higher on the day, but soybean meal ended just slightly higher while soybean oil was over 30 points higher.  Technical buying along with many reports of soybean yield loss and/or damage from the very soggy Western belt helped to support today’s trade.  Weather forecast’s do look mostly dry in the extended models, so hopefully next week will bring some answers to the extent of the damage.   Soybean weekly export sales were once again disappointing with just 16 million bushels booked.  Soybean sales will need average a record pace for the balance of the year to meet the current forecast.  With the current US/China relations, that seems quite optimistic.